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Red1
338713.9
371019.6
353012.4
Blue26
338614.4
37818.4
507612.4
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions34480100150126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3710
#30
19.62.0
14.612.6
Auto0.9
Teleop18.7
End0.0
red by 1.2
378
#11
18.41.8
18.917.1
Auto0.8
Teleop17.6
End0.0
Second
3387
#19
13.92.0
13.511.5
Auto0.8
Teleop13.1
End0.0
blue by 0.4
3386
#39
14.41.8
17.015.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.4
End0.0
Third
3530
#33
12.42.0
9.27.2
Auto0.9
Teleop11.5
End0.0
Level
5076
#40
12.41.3
11.710.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop12.7
End0.0