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Red118
132555.4
295943.1
497628.9
Blue148
86527.5
77250.0
285269.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105125050150200250300350118148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.40.3
49.750.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop55.5
End0.0
blue by 14.1
69.41.1
66.667.6
Auto0.5
Teleop68.9
End0.0
Second
2959
#15
43.10.3
39.339.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop43.2
End0.0
blue by 6.9
772
#6
50.01.1
40.942.0
Auto-0.6
Teleop50.6
End0.0
Third
28.90.3
23.523.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop29.0
End0.0
red by 1.4
865
#10
27.51.1
19.120.2
Auto0.8
Teleop26.7
End0.0