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Red40
21619.7
317516.7
49238.6
Blue71
435717.6
493818.5
128527.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions435801001502004071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
216
#22
19.70.3
18.718.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.8
End0.0
blue by 8.0
1285
#34
27.71.0
25.626.6
Auto0.2
Teleop27.5
End0.0
Second
3175
#43
16.70.3
15.415.1
Auto-0.6
Teleop17.3
End0.0
blue by 1.7
4938
#30
18.51.4
14.616.0
Auto0.4
Teleop18.1
End0.0
Third
4923
#39
8.60.5
12.311.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop8.9
End0.0
blue by 9.0
4357
#27
17.61.4
17.118.5
Auto0.1
Teleop17.5
End0.0