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Red139
131862.5
511130.3
94861.6
Blue154
445049.3
255067.0
366364.5
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions112147050200250300350139154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.50.9
50.551.3
Auto1.5
Teleop61.0
End0.0
blue by 4.5
67.00.4
53.553.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop67.1
End0.0
Second
948
#4
61.60.9
45.946.8
Auto11.3
Teleop50.3
End0.0
blue by 2.8
64.50.4
55.856.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop64.8
End0.0
Third
5111
#48
30.30.9
24.825.7
Auto0.7
Teleop29.6
End0.0
blue by 19.0
4450
#21
49.30.4
37.237.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop49.5
End0.0