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Red118
367447.9
339336.9
358835.2
Blue134
142537.2
451335.5
131862.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions88118050150200250300118134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.91.1
33.834.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop48.2
End0.0
blue by 14.6
62.50.8
58.259.0
Auto1.5
Teleop61.0
End0.0
Second
3393
#47
36.91.1
30.631.7
Auto0.0
Teleop36.9
End0.0
blue by 0.2
1425
#27
37.20.8
31.432.2
Auto0.4
Teleop36.8
End0.0
Third
3588
#56
35.21.1
31.332.4
Auto0.4
Teleop34.8
End0.0
blue by 0.4
4513
#16
35.50.8
27.828.6
Auto0.4
Teleop35.1
End0.0