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Red126
446942.2
451335.5
498035.3
Blue107
460829.1
574828.4
546827.6
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6761204080100120126107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4469
#24
42.22.9
32.535.4
Auto-0.4
Teleop42.7
End0.0
red by 13.1
4608
#39
29.12.2
25.227.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop29.3
End0.0
Second
4513
#16
35.52.9
22.925.8
Auto0.4
Teleop35.1
End0.0
red by 7.1
5748
#58
28.42.2
21.023.1
Auto0.1
Teleop28.4
End0.0
Third
35.32.9
13.316.1
Auto0.6
Teleop34.7
End0.0
red by 7.7
5468
#53
27.62.2
17.719.9
Auto0.3
Teleop27.3
End0.0