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Red192
131862.5
255067.0
446942.2
Blue208
445049.3
366364.5
491148.2
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16914980100120140160180200220240192208

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.00.3
67.067.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop67.1
End0.0
red by 2.5
64.50.8
62.963.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop64.8
End0.0
Second
62.50.3
62.562.8
Auto1.5
Teleop61.0
End0.0
red by 13.2
4450
#21
49.30.8
47.848.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop49.5
End0.0
Third
4469
#24
42.20.3
42.242.6
Auto-0.4
Teleop42.7
End0.0
blue by 6.0
4911
#45
48.20.8
46.747.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop48.4
End0.0