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Red190
95563.4
198384.7
293046.8
Blue230
247150.0
448884.4
151041.8
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions192166100150250190230

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
84.70.1
84.684.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop85.2
End0.0
red by 0.3
84.40.9
84.285.1
Auto0.0
Teleop84.3
End0.0
Second
955
#10
63.40.1
63.363.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop63.5
End0.0
red by 13.4
2471
#18
50.00.9
49.850.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop50.2
End0.0
Third
2930
#43
46.80.1
46.846.7
Auto1.4
Teleop45.4
End0.0
red by 5.0
1510
#14
41.80.9
42.042.9
Auto-0.5
Teleop42.4
End0.0