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Red151
311736.9
399642.0
544324.4
Blue90
338622.9
399031.7
355017.5
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions806105010015015190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.01.4
33.735.2
Auto-0.0
Teleop42.0
End0.0
red by 10.3
31.70.4
29.630.0
Auto0.7
Teleop31.0
End0.0
Second
36.91.2
30.231.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop37.2
End0.0
red by 14.1
3386
#12
22.90.4
20.821.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop23.1
End0.0
Third
5443
#26
24.41.4
16.117.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop24.4
End0.0
red by 6.9
3550
#17
17.50.4
15.515.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop17.8
End0.0