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Red55
353312.2
338622.9
452611.4
Blue108
338715.6
336049.2
557012.8
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions346605010015020055108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3386
#12
22.90.7
20.521.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop23.1
End0.0
blue by 26.3
49.22.2
40.242.4
Auto5.7
Teleop43.5
End0.0
Second
3533
#38
12.21.2
12.613.9
Auto1.7
Teleop10.4
End0.0
blue by 3.4
3387
#25
15.62.2
13.415.6
Auto1.1
Teleop14.5
End0.0
Third
4526
#36
11.41.2
7.08.2
Auto-0.4
Teleop11.8
End0.0
blue by 1.4
5570
#33
12.83.7
10.113.7
Auto0.9
Teleop11.8
End0.0