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Red133
259051.2
336049.2
552827.1
Blue117
338622.9
399031.7
355017.5
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions120550100150200250133117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.20.4
47.147.5
Auto2.7
Teleop48.5
End0.0
red by 19.6
31.70.8
30.030.8
Auto0.7
Teleop31.0
End0.0
Second
49.20.4
45.145.5
Auto5.7
Teleop43.5
End0.0
red by 26.3
3386
#12
22.90.8
21.222.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop23.1
End0.0
Third
5528
#18
27.10.5
22.122.6
Auto0.5
Teleop26.6
End0.0
red by 9.6
3550
#17
17.50.8
15.916.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop17.8
End0.0