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Red140
7840.2
362325.9
216839.2
Blue102
17641.6
207919.7
55830.6
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8472204060100120140140102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78
#16
40.22.7
37.540.3
Auto0.5
Teleop39.7
End0.0
blue by 1.5
176
#3
41.61.3
33.334.6
Auto1.1
Teleop40.5
End0.0
Second
39.22.7
25.328.1
Auto0.3
Teleop38.9
End0.0
red by 8.7
558
#10
30.61.3
20.321.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop30.7
End0.0
Third
3623
#18
25.92.7
22.525.2
Auto-0.3
Teleop26.2
End0.0
red by 6.2
2079
#28
19.71.3
22.523.8
Auto0.3
Teleop19.4
End0.0