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Red64
233323.5
147730.6
463917.7
Blue165
399111.5
62482.3
526124.3
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5988010015020025064165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1477
#38
30.60.2
27.627.9
Auto0.0
Teleop30.5
End0.0
blue by 51.8
624
#3
82.34.2
70.774.9
Auto13.7
Teleop68.6
End0.0
Second
2333
#49
23.50.2
22.622.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.6
End0.0
blue by 0.8
5261
#20
24.37.0
9.716.7
Auto1.1
Teleop23.3
End0.0
Third
4639
#14
17.70.2
15.415.6
Auto-0.7
Teleop18.4
End0.0
red by 6.1
3991
#45
11.54.2
6.110.3
Auto0.2
Teleop11.3
End0.0