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Red130
47987.7
215834.6
430027.4
Blue86
336610.6
366613.6
348134.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions555320408010012013086

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.63.7
23.226.9
Auto0.0
Teleop34.6
End0.0
red by 0.1
34.51.5
26.227.7
Auto-0.6
Teleop35.1
End0.0
Second
4300
#17
27.43.7
26.730.4
Auto1.0
Teleop26.4
End0.0
red by 13.8
3666
#32
13.62.5
16.619.1
Auto-0.0
Teleop13.6
End0.0
Third
4798
#44
7.76.2
6.112.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.8
End0.0
blue by 2.9
3366
#41
10.61.5
13.314.8
Auto0.5
Teleop10.0
End0.0