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Red40
373543.9
399725.7
433510.6
Blue0
50529.3
348141.4
215839.2
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7589050150200250300350400

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3735
#26
43.90.0
43.943.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop44.4
End0.0
red by 2.5
41.40.0
41.441.4
Auto-0.8
Teleop42.3
End0.0
Second
3997
#14
25.70.0
25.725.7
Auto0.3
Teleop25.4
End0.0
blue by 13.4
2158
#22
39.20.0
39.239.2
Auto-0.3
Teleop39.4
End0.0
Third
4335
#23
10.60.0
10.610.6
Auto0.2
Teleop10.4
End0.0
red by 1.4
5052
#27
9.30.0
9.39.3
Auto0.3
Teleop9.0
End0.0