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Red20
46968.6
215820.3
374323.6
Blue62
399918.2
246841.0
575417.3
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions295601001502062

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.61.2
15.514.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop23.8
End0.0
blue by 17.4
41.00.4
31.932.3
Auto0.1
Teleop41.0
End0.0
Second
2158
#40
20.31.2
11.210.0
Auto0.4
Teleop19.9
End0.0
red by 2.2
18.20.7
11.011.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop18.3
End0.0
Third
4696
#46
8.61.2
7.46.2
Auto1.4
Teleop7.2
End0.0
blue by 8.6
17.30.7
11.111.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop17.4
End0.0