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Qual 362015 Virginia Regional
Red21
325812.2
527915.3
103312.5
Blue18
55465.5
348919.2
496913.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions34332025304045502118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5279
#17
15.31.2
10.4→9.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop15.4
End0.0
blue by 3.9
3489
#14
19.20.8
15.6→14.8
Auto0.7
Teleop18.5
End0.0
Second
1033
#25
12.51.2
13.4→12.3
Auto0.6
Teleop12.0
End0.0
blue by 0.8
4969
#42
13.31.4
12.3→10.9
Auto0.2
Teleop13.1
End0.0
Third
3258
#30
12.21.2
11.0→9.9
Auto0.2
Teleop12.0
End0.0
red by 6.6
5546
#59
5.51.4
6.4→5.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop5.6
End0.0