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Red38
323715.8
378613.3
498013.3
Blue39
36849.7
125820.2
568319.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions43420102030506070803839

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3237
#22
15.80.3
16.115.9
Auto0.7
Teleop15.1
End0.0
blue by 4.3
1258
#12
20.20.3
18.218.5
Auto0.1
Teleop20.1
End0.0
Second
3786
#25
13.30.3
13.112.8
Auto0.2
Teleop13.2
End0.0
blue by 5.9
5683
#16
19.20.3
21.621.9
Auto0.2
Teleop19.0
End0.0
Third
4980
#30
13.30.3
13.913.7
Auto1.3
Teleop11.9
End0.0
red by 3.5
3684
#26
9.70.3
5.55.8
Auto0.2
Teleop9.5
End0.0