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Red82
451322.9
387620.2
292316.8
Blue114
323838.3
508511.7
214930.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4768010015020082114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4513
#19
22.91.5
20.321.8
Auto0.5
Teleop22.4
End0.0
blue by 15.4
3238
#10
38.32.4
34.336.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop38.5
End0.0
Second
3876
#14
20.21.5
15.116.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop20.3
End0.0
blue by 10.3
30.52.4
19.121.4
Auto0.8
Teleop29.7
End0.0
Third
2923
#15
16.81.5
16.918.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop17.0
End0.0
red by 5.0
5085
#33
11.73.9
13.517.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.8
End0.0