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Red47
412011.7
460825.2
472619.3
Blue81
293044.1
387620.2
37129.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions486601001502004781

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.20.3
23.122.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop25.2
End0.0
blue by 18.9
44.10.8
40.741.5
Auto0.7
Teleop43.4
End0.0
Second
4726
#16
19.30.3
18.117.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop19.5
End0.0
blue by 0.9
3876
#14
20.20.8
18.018.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop20.3
End0.0
Third
4120
#31
11.70.3
11.611.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.9
End0.0
red by 2.5
3712
#30
9.20.8
6.87.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop9.3
End0.0