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Red50
294422.9
323838.3
508511.7
Blue100
371134.6
445037.9
430918.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions669005015020050100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3238
#10
38.30.4
38.237.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop38.5
End0.0
red by 0.4
37.90.2
37.437.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop38.0
End0.0
Second
2944
#11
22.90.4
22.822.4
Auto0.0
Teleop22.9
End0.0
blue by 11.7
34.60.2
34.234.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop34.7
End0.0
Third
5085
#33
11.70.4
11.611.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.8
End0.0
blue by 6.9
4309
#22
18.70.2
18.218.4
Auto0.8
Teleop17.9
End0.0