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Red130
491138.8
366343.6
574815.9
Blue61
498019.6
382622.9
290316.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10250015020013061

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.60.5
43.343.9
Auto-0.0
Teleop43.6
End0.0
red by 20.7
3826
#10
22.90.0
23.023.1
Auto1.1
Teleop21.8
End0.0
Second
38.80.5
38.539.1
Auto0.2
Teleop38.6
End0.0
red by 19.2
4980
#21
19.60.0
19.719.8
Auto1.2
Teleop18.4
End0.0
Third
5748
#17
15.90.5
15.616.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop16.1
End0.0
blue by 0.9
2903
#16
16.80.0
16.916.9
Auto0.2
Teleop16.5
End0.0