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Red123
198365.5
465411.6
260536.5
Blue86
321821.5
491138.8
293029.6
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions888120406010012014016012386

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.51.6
52.554.1
Auto-0.4
Teleop66.0
End0.0
red by 26.7
38.80.1
32.532.5
Auto0.2
Teleop38.6
End0.0
Second
36.51.6
32.934.5
Auto0.6
Teleop35.9
End0.0
red by 6.9
29.60.1
28.628.6
Auto0.6
Teleop29.0
End0.0
Third
4654
#30
11.62.7
4.97.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop11.9
End0.0
blue by 10.0
3218
#19
21.50.1
23.823.9
Auto0.9
Teleop20.7
End0.0