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Red68
30708.7
498019.6
491823.8
Blue36
396820.7
297621.7
266013.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4948204060806836

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4918
#12
23.80.9
20.621.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop24.0
End0.0
red by 2.1
2976
#11
21.70.7
22.021.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop22.0
End0.0
Second
4980
#21
19.60.9
16.016.9
Auto1.2
Teleop18.4
End0.0
blue by 1.1
3968
#20
20.71.2
12.010.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop20.8
End0.0
Third
3070
#28
8.71.6
12.714.3
Auto0.2
Teleop8.5
End0.0
blue by 4.7
2660
#25
13.40.7
16.916.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop13.5
End0.0