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Red108
491823.8
420526.8
465411.6
Blue145
357510.1
290316.8
366343.6
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50580100150200250108145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.82.8
23.626.3
Auto0.3
Teleop26.5
End0.0
blue by 16.8
43.64.3
39.343.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop43.6
End0.0
Second
4918
#12
23.82.8
21.524.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop24.0
End0.0
red by 7.0
2903
#16
16.84.3
13.718.0
Auto0.2
Teleop16.5
End0.0
Third
4654
#30
11.64.3
7.611.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop11.9
End0.0
red by 1.5
3575
#29
10.16.7
5.812.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop10.2
End0.0