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Red89
198365.5
468313.6
131841.1
Blue101
260536.5
396820.7
293029.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1077205015020089101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.50.2
57.957.7
Auto-0.4
Teleop66.0
End0.0
red by 29.0
36.51.0
36.337.4
Auto0.6
Teleop35.9
End0.0
Second
41.10.2
35.835.6
Auto2.1
Teleop39.1
End0.0
red by 11.5
29.61.0
27.128.2
Auto0.6
Teleop29.0
End0.0
Third
4683
#24
13.60.2
12.011.8
Auto-0.4
Teleop14.1
End0.0
blue by 7.1
3968
#20
20.71.5
16.618.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop20.8
End0.0