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Red94
241227.3
418015.9
366354.9
Blue52
131850.2
491526.8
326816.0
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions797940601001209452

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.90.7
40.941.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop55.1
End0.0
red by 4.7
50.21.6
46.244.6
Auto1.3
Teleop49.0
End0.0
Second
27.30.7
20.120.8
Auto0.3
Teleop27.0
End0.0
red by 0.5
4915
#12
26.81.6
24.623.0
Auto0.2
Teleop26.6
End0.0
Third
4180
#28
15.90.7
18.919.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop16.0
End0.0
blue by 0.1
3268
#22
16.01.6
13.411.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.3
End0.0