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Red102
491526.8
378736.6
468214.7
Blue84
468132.1
396833.2
403015.9
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7776406010012010284

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.60.4
36.436.8
Auto0.5
Teleop36.1
End0.0
red by 3.4
33.20.1
33.233.2
Auto0.2
Teleop33.0
End0.0
Second
4915
#12
26.80.4
26.627.1
Auto0.2
Teleop26.6
End0.0
blue by 5.2
32.10.1
32.032.1
Auto0.9
Teleop31.2
End0.0
Third
4682
#23
14.70.4
14.514.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.8
End0.0
blue by 1.1
4030
#29
15.90.1
15.815.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.2
End0.0