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Red103
252233.9
290311.5
45128.2
Blue74
408913.6
382617.9
568323.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions414120608010010374

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.93.4
29.532.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop34.0
End0.0
red by 10.4
23.52.7
17.820.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop23.8
End0.0
Second
2903
#28
11.53.4
8.211.5
Auto-0.0
Teleop11.6
End0.0
blue by 6.3
3826
#17
17.92.7
14.116.8
Auto1.2
Teleop16.7
End0.0
Third
4512
#33
8.23.4
4.88.2
Auto0.3
Teleop7.9
End0.0
blue by 5.4
4089
#27
13.62.7
10.813.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.9
End0.0