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Red7
511120.9
21482.9
292816.4
Blue14
460810.2
321912.8
369318.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions41350206080100120140714

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.92.9
13.510.6
Auto0.0
Teleop20.9
End0.0
red by 2.9
18.01.9
13.912.0
Auto0.3
Teleop17.8
End0.0
Second
2928
#16
16.42.9
18.715.8
Auto0.5
Teleop15.9
End0.0
red by 3.6
3219
#20
12.81.9
13.111.2
Auto0.2
Teleop12.7
End0.0
Third
2148
#26
2.92.9
9.46.5
Auto0.2
Teleop2.8
End0.0
blue by 7.3
4608
#22
10.21.9
10.18.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop10.3
End0.0