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Red102
450825.7
451931.8
540437.4
Blue119
174742.1
131039.4
83933.7
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions86121050100150200250102119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5404
#74
37.40.6
38.238.7
Auto10.6
Teleop21.5
End5.3
blue by 4.7
42.10.4
38.739.1
Auto14.8
Teleop21.8
End5.5
Second
4519
#25
31.80.6
26.326.9
Auto10.3
Teleop17.1
End4.4
blue by 7.5
1310
#11
39.40.4
41.241.6
Auto12.1
Teleop18.1
End9.2
Third
4508
#40
25.70.6
23.924.5
Auto8.1
Teleop13.5
End4.0
blue by 8.0
839
#42
33.70.4
32.933.3
Auto8.1
Teleop20.0
End5.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
93%Breach oddsEarned96%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
6%Capture oddsMissed82%Capture oddsEarned