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Red60
414627.9
149219.8
49836.2
Blue120
264724.1
237521.9
98759.6
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions801085010015060120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
498
#11
36.21.5
37.035.5
Auto9.8
Teleop21.8
End4.6
blue by 23.4
987
#1
59.61.3
58.259.5
Auto16.4
Teleop35.6
End7.6
Second
4146
#33
27.91.5
24.723.2
Auto8.8
Teleop11.6
End7.5
red by 3.8
2647
#14
24.11.3
23.524.7
Auto9.2
Teleop11.0
End4.0
Third
1492
#36
19.81.5
20.418.9
Auto2.8
Teleop13.4
End3.6
blue by 2.0
2375
#26
21.91.3
19.520.7
Auto9.1
Teleop10.1
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
87%Breach oddsMissed91%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
1%Capture oddsMissed4%Capture oddsEarned