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Red120
242318.5
105845.4
17543.7
Blue121
173531.6
264839.2
512232.2
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions111105050150200250120121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1058
Unranked
45.40.0
45.445.4
Auto8.8
Teleop26.0
End10.6
red by 6.2
2648
Unranked
39.20.0
39.239.2
Auto10.0
Teleop25.4
End3.8
Second
175
Unranked
43.70.0
43.743.7
Auto9.5
Teleop24.5
End9.7
red by 11.4
5122
Unranked
32.20.0
32.232.2
Auto9.0
Teleop18.4
End4.9
Third
2423
Unranked
18.50.0
18.518.5
Auto5.9
Teleop9.3
End3.3
blue by 13.1
1735
Unranked
31.60.0
31.631.6
Auto12.7
Teleop13.6
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
89%Breach odds88%Breach odds
Capture
18%Capture odds25%Capture odds