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Red195
205249.5
212251.3
353842.8
Blue147
589546.3
23336.1
102453.4
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions187186150160170180200210220195147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.30.0
51.451.4
Auto13.9
Teleop26.4
End11.0
blue by 2.1
53.40.5
54.554.0
Auto13.6
Teleop35.1
End4.7
Second
49.50.0
49.549.5
Auto14.0
Teleop27.8
End7.7
red by 3.2
46.30.5
47.346.8
Auto12.0
Teleop28.3
End6.0
Third
3538
#43
42.80.0
42.842.8
Auto12.1
Teleop26.8
End3.8
red by 6.7
233
#41
36.10.5
37.136.7
Auto11.8
Teleop17.2
End7.1