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Red116
17640.2
99932.2
371822.1
Blue121
19556.5
455725.1
346131.9
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions76103050150200116121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
176
#14
40.22.6
33.335.9
Auto9.0
Teleop24.7
End6.6
blue by 16.3
195
#1
56.51.7
45.647.3
Auto12.1
Teleop37.6
End6.9
Second
999
#4
32.22.6
27.730.3
Auto8.7
Teleop17.8
End5.7
red by 0.2
3461
#31
31.91.7
28.730.4
Auto10.6
Teleop17.2
End4.2
Third
3718
#35
22.12.6
16.519.0
Auto3.1
Teleop16.4
End2.6
blue by 3.0
4557
#25
25.11.7
21.723.3
Auto8.9
Teleop13.4
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
67%Breach oddsEarned92%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
2%Capture oddsEarned0%Capture oddsMissed