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Red180
241543.8
174639.8
446841.3
Blue107
418836.4
126144.9
297438.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17015650100200250180107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.80.0
43.843.8
Auto9.8
Teleop29.1
End4.9
blue by 1.1
44.90.0
44.944.9
Auto14.3
Teleop25.7
End4.9
Second
4468
#15
41.30.0
41.341.3
Auto11.7
Teleop23.2
End6.4
red by 2.8
2974
#20
38.50.0
38.538.5
Auto8.3
Teleop24.9
End5.3
Third
39.80.0
39.839.8
Auto9.0
Teleop22.8
End8.0
red by 3.3
36.40.0
36.436.4
Auto8.6
Teleop22.2
End5.6