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Red145
86845.8
150152.9
44738.3
Blue194
102452.8
410349.9
152936.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184184150160170180190200210145194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.90.5
53.552.9
Auto16.9
Teleop26.4
End9.6
red by 0.2
52.80.2
52.552.8
Auto11.5
Teleop36.1
End5.1
Second
868
#3
45.80.5
46.445.8
Auto15.0
Teleop27.6
End3.2
blue by 4.1
49.90.2
49.749.9
Auto10.7
Teleop28.4
End10.8
Third
447
#23
38.30.5
38.838.3
Auto10.7
Teleop23.0
End4.5
red by 1.5
1529
#17
36.80.2
36.636.8
Auto9.7
Teleop22.4
End4.7