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Red125
86845.8
150152.9
44738.3
Blue177
102452.8
410349.9
152936.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions186184120140160200220240125177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.90.8
54.353.5
Auto16.9
Teleop26.4
End9.6
red by 0.2
52.80.2
52.752.5
Auto11.5
Teleop36.1
End5.1
Second
868
#3
45.80.8
47.246.4
Auto15.0
Teleop27.6
End3.2
blue by 4.1
49.90.2
49.949.7
Auto10.7
Teleop28.4
End10.8
Third
447
#23
38.30.8
39.638.8
Auto10.7
Teleop23.0
End4.5
red by 1.5
1529
#17
36.80.2
36.736.6
Auto9.7
Teleop22.4
End4.7