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Red105
13548.5
101827.9
394033.6
Blue107
150152.9
318027.4
393633.0
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107113050150200250300105107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
135
#14
48.50.0
42.842.9
Auto10.8
Teleop28.7
End9.0
blue by 4.5
52.90.1
50.150.0
Auto16.9
Teleop26.4
End9.6
Second
3940
#10
33.60.0
32.932.9
Auto9.1
Teleop18.9
End5.6
red by 0.7
3936
#31
33.00.1
34.234.1
Auto7.4
Teleop21.2
End4.3
Third
1018
#21
27.90.0
28.828.8
Auto7.3
Teleop16.8
End3.9
red by 0.5
3180
#28
27.40.1
24.724.5
Auto8.4
Teleop15.1
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
95%Breach oddsEarned93%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
67%Capture oddsEarned28%Capture oddsMissed