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Red175
169041.7
333935.6
474426.3
Blue136
503839.1
263035.7
193721.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12611550100150200175136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.70.7
40.941.6
Auto10.4
Teleop25.1
End6.2
red by 2.6
5038
#12
39.10.2
39.439.2
Auto11.2
Teleop21.8
End6.1
Second
35.60.8
34.735.4
Auto12.0
Teleop18.2
End5.4
blue by 0.1
35.70.2
36.035.8
Auto10.6
Teleop20.3
End4.8
Third
4744
#29
26.30.7
25.526.2
Auto10.3
Teleop11.4
End4.7
red by 5.1
1937
#27
21.20.2
21.521.4
Auto3.6
Teleop13.9
End3.8