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Red69
46726.9
196521.5
176118.4
Blue120
81127.0
417628.1
105844.3
14%Model gave it86%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5599015069120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
467
#11
26.90.6
25.025.6
Auto4.6
Teleop17.9
End4.4
blue by 17.4
44.31.8
41.343.1
Auto9.8
Teleop21.1
End13.4
Second
1965
#30
21.50.6
17.117.7
Auto6.4
Teleop10.1
End5.0
blue by 6.6
4176
#18
28.11.8
20.822.5
Auto9.6
Teleop13.6
End4.8
Third
1761
#24
18.40.6
18.118.7
Auto2.5
Teleop13.3
End2.6
blue by 8.6
811
#25
27.01.8
26.428.1
Auto4.2
Teleop16.1
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
27%Breach oddsEarned70%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
1%Capture oddsMissed1%Capture oddsEarned