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Red190
91041.6
496747.2
30234.7
Blue110
283230.7
54842.9
191851.6
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions156155110120130140150160170180190190110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4967
Unranked
47.20.0
47.247.2
Auto8.7
Teleop30.7
End7.9
blue by 4.3
1918
Unranked
51.60.0
51.651.6
Auto13.5
Teleop27.9
End10.2
Second
910
Unranked
41.60.0
41.641.6
Auto18.1
Teleop18.4
End5.1
blue by 1.3
548
Unranked
42.90.0
42.942.9
Auto9.6
Teleop28.3
End5.0
Third
302
Unranked
34.70.0
34.734.7
Auto8.9
Teleop15.2
End10.6
red by 4.0
2832
Unranked
30.70.0
30.730.7
Auto10.2
Teleop14.6
End5.8