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Red64
291215.2
68629.2
188525.9
Blue31
409913.8
191513.4
451418.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions564801001506431

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
686
#7
29.21.2
17.518.7
Auto9.7
Teleop15.6
End4.0
red by 10.6
4514
#24
18.61.8
16.314.5
Auto5.7
Teleop10.2
End2.8
Second
1885
#13
25.91.2
22.824.0
Auto4.5
Teleop18.0
End3.4
red by 12.1
4099
#32
13.81.8
14.112.3
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End2.6
Third
2912
#17
15.21.2
13.214.3
Auto7.3
Teleop6.5
End1.4
red by 1.8
1915
#27
13.41.8
17.215.3
Auto3.3
Teleop7.6
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
43%Breach oddsEarned46%Breach oddsMissed
Capture
0%Capture oddsMissed0%Capture oddsMissed