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Red112
83633.3
141843.7
291215.2
Blue103
188525.9
253732.4
49499.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1187650100150112103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.70.0
43.043.0
Auto8.7
Teleop23.6
End11.3
red by 11.3
32.40.4
31.331.7
Auto13.0
Teleop13.4
End6.0
Second
836
#4
33.30.0
32.432.4
Auto11.4
Teleop16.1
End5.8
red by 7.4
1885
#13
25.90.4
24.725.1
Auto4.5
Teleop18.0
End3.4
Third
2912
#17
15.20.0
15.215.2
Auto7.3
Teleop6.5
End1.4
red by 5.8
4949
#33
9.40.4
8.28.6
Auto1.8
Teleop7.1
End0.4