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Red128
354235.8
387530.2
526324.2
Blue126
360439.4
317531.1
611623.2
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114108050150200250128126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.80.1
35.936.0
Auto9.2
Teleop16.5
End10.2
blue by 3.6
39.40.4
37.838.2
Auto9.4
Teleop21.1
End8.9
Second
30.20.1
30.330.3
Auto10.1
Teleop16.5
End3.6
blue by 0.9
31.10.4
29.529.9
Auto6.2
Teleop19.1
End5.9
Third
5263
#28
24.20.1
24.324.4
Auto5.4
Teleop14.8
End4.0
red by 1.0
6116
#20
23.20.4
21.621.9
Auto7.3
Teleop11.3
End4.6