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Red101
354235.8
387530.2
526324.2
Blue158
360439.4
317531.1
611623.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11410950150200101158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.80.2
36.035.8
Auto9.2
Teleop16.5
End10.2
blue by 3.6
39.40.4
38.238.6
Auto9.4
Teleop21.1
End8.9
Second
30.20.2
30.330.1
Auto10.1
Teleop16.5
End3.6
blue by 0.9
31.10.4
29.930.3
Auto6.2
Teleop19.1
End5.9
Third
5263
#28
24.20.2
24.424.2
Auto5.4
Teleop14.8
End4.0
red by 1.0
6116
#20
23.20.4
21.922.3
Auto7.3
Teleop11.3
End4.6