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Red151
50331.5
309830.9
591522.1
Blue42
118927.5
556732.7
555518.8
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9010240608012014016015142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
503
#17
31.50.4
30.030.4
Auto7.9
Teleop15.7
End8.0
blue by 1.2
32.70.9
33.732.8
Auto8.6
Teleop16.5
End7.6
Second
30.90.4
29.429.7
Auto5.9
Teleop17.9
End7.1
red by 3.4
1189
#10
27.50.9
28.527.6
Auto4.5
Teleop19.0
End4.0
Third
5915
#30
22.10.4
20.520.9
Auto8.5
Teleop11.9
End1.7
red by 3.3
5555
#19
18.80.9
19.818.9
Auto4.4
Teleop11.7
End2.7