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Semifinal 1-32016 Michigan State Championship
Red97
436244.6
247442.2
544841.1
Blue174
546050.1
515040.1
213741.5
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17517310012014016018020097174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4362
#18
44.60.9
45.4→44.6
Auto12.3
Teleop23.4
End8.8
blue by 5.5
5460
#26
50.10.4
49.6→50.0
Auto9.4
Teleop31.8
End8.8
Second
2474
#12
42.20.9
43.1→42.2
Auto10.7
Teleop24.8
End6.7
red by 0.7
2137
#77
41.50.4
41.0→41.4
Auto16.4
Teleop20.1
End5.0
Third
5448
#44
41.10.9
42.0→41.1
Auto13.3
Teleop18.3
End9.6
red by 1.0
5150
#4
40.10.4
39.6→40.1
Auto10.9
Teleop22.8
End6.5