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Red50
521315.5
531415.1
507222.2
Blue72
554723.8
471520.1
361727.3
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5554203040506070805072

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5072
#18
22.20.3
21.921.6
Auto9.1
Teleop10.3
End2.8
blue by 5.1
3617
#17
27.32.1
17.119.3
Auto9.3
Teleop12.3
End5.6
Second
5213
#32
15.50.3
14.914.7
Auto3.6
Teleop9.1
End2.9
blue by 8.2
5547
#21
23.81.3
20.621.9
Auto10.4
Teleop8.8
End4.5
Third
5314
#39
15.10.3
15.515.3
Auto2.2
Teleop12.7
End0.2
blue by 5.0
4715
#24
20.12.1
15.117.3
Auto4.8
Teleop10.2
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
39%Breach oddsMissed39%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
0%Capture oddsMissed0%Capture oddsMissed