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Red103
7037.7
438437.9
356825.5
Blue116
20134.9
555930.0
542432.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13111850100150200250103116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.90.5
39.238.8
Auto7.9
Teleop24.2
End5.8
red by 3.0
201
#22
34.90.2
35.335.1
Auto7.3
Teleop21.7
End5.8
Second
70
#8
37.70.5
39.138.6
Auto14.4
Teleop20.4
End3.0
red by 5.7
5424
#19
32.00.2
32.432.3
Auto10.2
Teleop13.8
End8.0
Third
3568
#17
25.50.5
26.826.3
Auto6.2
Teleop14.8
End4.5
blue by 4.6
30.00.2
30.430.3
Auto8.6
Teleop15.7
End5.8